CORONADO, Calif. The global aluminum market will be more or less balanced in 2013, with most of the years production and demand growth to come from China, according to Tim Reyes, president of Alcoa Materials Management.
Global demand will accelerate by 7 percent this year, while the world excluding China will see growth of around 4 percent, the senior executive at Pittsburgh-based Alcoa Inc. said at an industry conference in Coronado, Calif. "The primary aluminum market will be essentially balanced in 2013, with a surplus of 535,000 tonnes."
Chinese output is expected to reach 23.4 million tonnes this year, up 2.8 million tonnes from 2012, while Chinese demand of 23 million tonnes will be 2.3 million tonnes higher, leaving a surplus of around 400,000 tonnes vs. 100,000 tonnes in 2012.
Primary aluminum output in the rest of the world is expected to increase 1.85 million tonnes to 26.6 million tonnes this year, with demand forecast to grow 1.06 million tonnes to 26.4 million tonnes, leaving a surplus of 185,000 tonnes vs. a deficit of 362,000 tonnes in 2012
Reyes said that production curtailments in China are expected to total 250,000 tonnes this year, the same amount forecast to be cut in the rest of the world.