NEW YORK The cash price for copper looks poised to reach an average of $3.42 per pound over the next 10 years, according to a senior mining analyst for independent market researcher Salman Peters Inc.
The metals average cash price is expected to grow during the next decade to $3.49 per pound in 2023 from its current low point of about $3.29, analyst Raymond Goldie told AMM.
Copper "is the only commodity to diagnose long-term trends," he said at the New York Society of Security Analysts 14th annual Metals and Mining Industry Conference in New York. Three months ago, Goldie predicted prices would be around $3.70 per pound, but he said he had changed that forecast to reflect seasonal changes.
"Copper is sufficiently liquid," he said. "Theres a growing shortage of copper that helps to support flat prices."
Every year, the amount of copper available from mines decreases, Goldie said.
"Right now is the best time of year to buy copper," he said. "Commodity prices are going sideways. Its part of a seasonal trend, a downward seasonal phenomenon."
Copper is the most reliable metal for long-term forecasting because the metal is needed for so many industries, he said. Other metals, such as aluminum, are used in only a few industries, while copper is used in communications, electronics, auto manufacturing, construction and more.
At some point, copper could be affected by a stall in Chinese imports because of the demographics, Goldie said. A large part of the Chinese population is aging, while countries such as India have a primarily young population that can fuel the next economic cycle.
The July Comex contract, the most actively traded, settled at $3.2685 per pound June 7, down 0.7 percent from $3.2925 a week earlier.