NEW YORK Mid-Atlantic ferrous scrap market participants are speculating that prices will fall in October, with some attributing the possible dip to steady scrap flows and weak demand.
Players in the Cincinnati, Philadelphia and New York markets told AMM that prices are expected to decline, with some specifying a drop of around $10 per gross ton.
"Feedback to date is a soft marketprices down $10 to $20 per ton. Well see when the market develops," one consumer source in the Philadelphia region said. "Cut grades will be less impacted."
Many scrap suppliers also forecast the possibility of another drop in prices.
"It looks like October will be down. The discussion now is down $10 per ton, certainly on shred," one dealer said. "Theres weak demandweve got mills that have had production issues, mills that have shutdowns."
"I think the mills smell weakness. As soon as dealers say weak sideways, the mills pick up on the first word: weak," a second dealer said. "This could be down $10 or more. The flows are decent, the weather has been good, the prices are good, so the mills know they can do it."
However, some suppliers were skeptical that the market would see double-figure price drops.
"Its not headed higher, thats for sure. There seems to be some dealer willingness to part with scrap at slightly down money, but only a couple of dollars. The closer you get to that $10-per-ton amount, youll get more dealer resistance," one Philadelphia-based dealer said.
"I think flows are only mediocre," another dealer said. "I think that all the dealers are trying to create margin and by doing that keeping flows pretty dry. Next month I expect a sloppy sideways market."