LONDON Indonesias 2014 mineral export ban is a big risk for copper but even more so for nickel, Barclays Capital Plc commodities analyst Gayle Berry said Oct. 3.
"If they impose the export ban in a draconian way, a significant amount of copper concentrate is at risk," Berry said at the Copper Concentrates conference in London, hosted by AMM sister publication Metal Bulletin.
However, copper is less at risk than nickel if the ban goes through, she said. "I dont think it will be an all-out ban. I think we will see a graduated increase in export taxes and policy on a mine-by-mine basis."
One complication, Berry said, is that the Philippines, Chinas other major nickel ore supplier, wont be able to make up for shortfalls from Indonesia.
Indonesia could raise its tax on mineral exports instead of banning them, and Chinas nickel ore inventory is likely to limit the effect of any Indonesian export ban on the country, participants said at Metal Bulletins Asian nickel conference in Jakarta, Indonesia, in September.
A version of this article was first published in AMM sister publication Metal Bulletin.