NEW YORK Prices for bulk ferrous
scrap exports to Turkey trended sideways this past week as
higher freight rates put a damper on recently booked
reported just two cargo sales to Turkey this past week: one
each from Europe and the United States at $389 per tonne c.i.f.
Turkey for an 80/20 mix of No. 1 and No. 2 heavy melting
A modest increase in
bulk freight rates, however, meant that pre-shipping values for
U.S. scrap lost a little ground as AMMs weekly
East Coast Ferrous Scrap Export Index settled Nov. 25 at
$357.08 per tonne f.o.b. New York, down 0.7 percent from
$359.65 per tonne a week ago.
Several sources said
they expect scrap demand to spike this week, noting that
improving conditions in Turkish exports of finished product to
Egypt could prove to be the catalyst. However, most were
uncertain about what this demand means for scrap prices.
"The coming week would
be of interest in seeing the impact on Egypts decision on
(the) termination of the safeguard duty on imports of rebar and
wire rod," according to one exporter.
Domestic demand for
finished product remains nominal, but there is enough
positivity in its export markets to lift scrap demand, a
Turkish trader said.
"In the export market
there are two good potential developments. First, I heard Egypt
took off the anti-dumping (duty) on Turkish rebar and billet.
Secondly, its under discussion that Turkish banks can be
reactivated with a money transfer with Iran, so there might be
sales if this takes place," he said.
"(Scrap) talks will
restart either late this week or early next week. Turkey might
buy around 10 to 15 cargoes, or if the current situation
continues on the product side they might take the decision to
slow down production like they did in December 2012," he
However, the mood has
already turned positive, a second Turkish trader said. "Turkish
mills sold approximately 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of rebar to
Egypt last week. The sales prices are so good that the market
is relaxed now. I think Turkish mills will buy more scrap," he
suggested that seasonal supply tightness in North America and
Europe will also cause Turkish mills to book a flurry of
cargoes in the next two weeks.
"Based on the minimum
2 (million) to 2.5 million tonnes of monthly demand, they
bought not even half as far as I know. Furthermore, winter is
close so there will be no shipments between Dec. 20 and Jan.
7," one European exporter said.
But other market
participants arent as bullish on demand.
"Many mills postponed
their purchases to push down prices, and next week the market
will move according to who is strong. I believe mills are not
strong enough," a third Turkish trader said.
One U.S. trader said
demand will be nonexistent this week due to a short trading
"More scrap should
stay domestic. The Turks have a huge margin squeeze at the
moment and cant afford to buy U.S. scrap at competitive
prices. So they will buy billets and try to sell rebar using
the more competitive billets," he said.