NEW YORK The
U.S. Commerce Departments preliminary ruling in an oil
country tubular goods (OCTG) anti-dumping investigation may
foreshadow unfavorable rulings in other pending trade cases,
according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
"Of all the trade
cases filed in the United States, OCTG seemed to have the
strongest argument in our view as almost 60 percent of market
share is controlled by imports," analysts wrote in a note. "We
believe this unfavorable ruling does not bode well for other
trade cases, especially against rebar imports as rebar imports
constitute only 14 percent of the U.S. rebar market."
rulingCommerces International Trade Administration
assessed no dumping margins on South Korean OCTG producers and
smaller-than-expected duties on other countries (
amm.com, Feb. 18)has not changed Goldman
Sachs overall bullish view on Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel
Corp., one of the petitioners in the trade case, due to
improving steel market fundamentals.
"The OCTG trade case
was just a small incentive in our positive view on (U.S.
Steel), but not a fundamental driver of our thesis. We are
buyers on any dip in U.S. Steel on the back of this news," the
There also is a chance
that the final determinations in the OCTG trade case could
differ materially from the preliminary results, the analysts
said, noting that in a 2009 case against Chinese OCTG the
preliminary dumping margin for Tianjin Pipe (Group) Corp. was
zero but the final ruling assessed a 99-percent dumping
"Although we are not
anticipating any major reversal in these recent preliminary
duties, based on past experience some of these decisions could
turn out to be more positive in the final (Commerce)
determination," New York-based Goldman Sachs said.