AISI Roundtable

Six steel industry executives share their take on the hottest issues of the day

This time last year,  the US steel industry's capacity utilization was south of 50 percent and major markets were in full retreat. Twelve months have made a difference but 'we still have a ways to go,' says AK Steel's James Wainscott, one of six executives who sat down with AMM at the AISI's annual meeting in May to address a list of topics headed by the lack of a national manufacturing agenda.

 

What is the state of the industry coming out of recession? Most indications are that recovery is going to be slow and take as many as three to four years. Have you seen anything that indicates a recovery might develop more quickly?

 

Louis Schorsch, president and chief executive officer, ArcelorMittal Flat Carbon Americas: The one thing I am positive about is that we were so damned wrong about the downturn coming in that we can all be a little more humble about "Are you a good prognosticator?" Also, the market was probably a little better than we expected in the first quarter.

 

James L. Wainscott, chairman, president and chief executive officer, AK Steel Corp.: What we've seen, when we were on the road talking to customers, is that they were buying at a fraction of what they had been, yet shipments were not down that far. That process of destocking ended. We don't know exactly when it ended, but it's over. The order intake rate we've seen has improved. The encouraging news is that shipments are up. The number of days in inventory is in decent shape. It does not appear to us that restocking has really occurred. It's a fair question, but it has not occurred in auto, where the number of days in inventory was in the mid-80s but now it's in the mid-50s. That's a positive sign as well. Maybe restocking is happening in a pocket or two, but it does not appear to be widespread. This does not mean we're all the way back. Sixteen million vehicles is one thing, 9 million to 10 million is another and 11 million to 12 million is still another. It's certainly not great. We're happy for the progress, but we still have a ways to go.

 

David Britten, president, SSAB Americas: I think a lot of people were hit right between the eyes with this. A lot of them seem to have a better business model now, they're turning inventories over and you don't see a lot of speculation out there. The first-quarter results were starting to strengthen. Some of that may be due to the rising price environment, but one of the things we are seeing is people operating with lower inventories.

 

Daniel R. DiMicco, chairman, president and chief executive officer, Nucor Corp.: There is a lot more that has to happen in terms of the economy itself. We're tied to real demand and that will go up and down based on a number of factors, but one of them is based on how the economy is doing. Construction is worse than it was last year. Flat-rolled is significantly better. But for the economy to get where it needs to get to, we need to do the right things in Washington. The public sector and private sector have to join forces to stimulate the economy, economic growth and the tax base and get GDP (gross domestic product) growing again. What has been done has been short-term in nature. What is unknown is, when stimulus spending stops having an impact will the engine of economic growth take off on its own? We're still trying to figure out whether that will happen in the next three to six months. But it is not going to happen if there are more tax burdens placed on the private sector.

 

Wainscott: It all starts with having a job. You're probably not out buying durable goods if you don't have a job. Being out of work is debilitating financially, emotionally and spiritually, and there are millions in that situation. It is very challenging. It takes a focus on creating good, sustainable jobs, good-paying jobs that allow a person to support a family and buy things. Until we see some of that, it's really difficult to get our heads around when housing or construction will improve meaningfully.

 

The federal stimulus package was supposed to do some of that and to increase steel usage. Why did that not happen? What needs to be done to correct what went wrong?

 

DiMicco: Look at what China did. They put $700 billion into real stimulus, creating...

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